Daily summary: Bears tries to take control again on Wall Street

8:06 PM October 17, 2023

  • Sentiments on European session was mixed, with the DAX closing flat, the FTSE gaining nearly 0.5% and the CAC40 up 0.1%. Polish bluechips benchmark WIG20 soared to 2120 points and posted a 1.8% gain extending its upward streak after polish elections. Morgan Stanley analysts pointed to attractive valuations of polish stocks
  • JP Morgan raised its forecast for US real GDP growth in Q3 to 4.3% from 3.5% previously. The yield on 2-year Treasury securities rose 10 bps today to 5.199%, the highest level since 2006. Treasury's 10 year yield increases by 15 bp reaching almost 4,86%
  • Nasdaq100 slides more than 0.6% today. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average are losing 0.3%. The VIX erases declines is again trading at nearly 3.2% plus.
  • Retail sales came in higher than forecast at 0.7% m/m vs. 0.3% m/m forecasts and 0.6% previously. The baseline rose 0.6% vs. 0.2% forecasts and 0.6% previously. US industrial production in September was 0.3% m/m vs. 0% forecasts and 0.4% previously
  • Strong macro data from the US fueled concerns about further Fed rate hikes. At the same time, the NAHB home construction index came in below expectations at 40 vs. 44 exp. and 45 previously
  • The U.S. will cut AI chip exports to China. Following the news, Nvidia's shares fell 5.2% today, even though the company said it would not have a negative impact on its business and results in the near term.
  • The Fed's Thomas Barkin signaled that current Fed policy is restrictive, and that disinflationary trends continue despite recent higher inflation readings. At the same time, Barkin spoke of the possibility of a change in policy due to economic shocks following the war in the Middle East
  • According to the Washington Post, the US military will send Marines to Israel. The U.S. Department of Defense has confirmed that some 2,000 U.S. military personnel are on high alert, but no decisions have been made on deployment at this time.
  • Canadian CPI inflation for September turned out to be lower y/y, at 3.8% y/y vs. 4% forecast and 4% previously. On a monthly basis, it fell 0.1% against 0.4% estimates. As a result, investors lowered expectations for another Bank of Canada rate hike;
  • Oil is losing 0.7% today, which may be a sign that investors are less concerned about the Israel-Hamas conflict and do not expect it to escalate further for now;
  • Bank of America sees a slowdown in customer spending, but the bank expects zero losses from securities held to maturity. Third-quarter profits were higher than expected, and the bank's shares are trading 3% higher today
  • Goldman Sachs loses 1.5% after its Q3 report - earnings per share were down 33% on a year-over-year basis. The bank's CEO Solomon spoke of softness in consumer business from CEOs and signaled the negative impact of tightening over the next four quarters
  • At the same time, USDIDX erased early gains and is currently trading 0.07% higher. EURUSD is gaining 0.1% today, with bulls on the Eurodollar breaking through a major resistance level at 1.06 today
  • Bitcoin is still trading at $28,400. Tomorrow, the SEC has a second deadline to make a decision on the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF

The 1,720 point level proved to be strong support on US2000. Prices is currently struggling with the EMA100 average after a rebound. In case of its sustained bullish breakthrough, the levels of 1800 and 1820 points should be considered as the next major resistances. Source: xStation5 Source: xStation5

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