Daily summary: Will the Fed notice worse labour market data?

8:21 PM July 7, 2023

1) Wall Street erases the morning's declines and all US indices are currently posting gains. The best performing is the US2000, which is currently gaining over 1.8%. 

2) The US dollar has been subjected to significant downward pressure during this week's final trading session. The weakness of the world's reserve currency is mainly due to the surprising NFP data, which surprised for the first time in a long time with a reading well below expectations.

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3) The yen gained strongly in the FX market today, adding more than 1.3% against the US dollar following the release of the annual wage growth data, which showed growth of 2.5% against expectations of 1.2%

4) The Labour Department's June report showed that non-farm payroll employment rose by 209,000 and the unemployment rate was 3.6%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had predicted that the economy would add 240,000 new jobs. On the other hand, the data supporting the continuation of the hike cycle was the payroll readings, which came in slightly better than expected. According to the money market, the Fed is 92% likely to decide on another 25 basis point hike at the next FOMC meeting. 

5) Data from the Canadian labour market surprised on the upside. Employment change at 59.9 thousand, against expectations of 21 thousand. 

6) A sizable recovery was evident today in the precious metals and in oil, with WTI and Brent crude gaining around 2% at times. Gold gained almost 1%, which is linked to the weakness of the dollar

7) On the other hand, we had 10-year bond yields almost at 4.10% today

8) Natgas is losing during today's session in the face of higher-than-expected US inventory readings and more gas production drilling rigs. 

9) Mixed sentiment persist in the crypto market. Bitcoin is trading around $30,000, nevertheless it is worth noting that the major cryptocurrency slipped below this level during today's trading. 

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