ECB press conference

12:54 PM October 26, 2023

The European Central Bank (ECB) left interest rates unchanged at a meeting today, in-line with market expectations. ECB is largely seen as done hiking rates already. Statement released along with the decision showed that current level of rates is consistent with reaching the 2% inflation goal and that rates may need to be kept at elevated levels for an extended period of time.

ECB President Lagarde began a post-meeting press conference at 1:45 pm BST today. Below are key takeaways from the presser:

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  • The economy remains weak
  • Subdued demand and tighter financing damp consumption
  • The economy is likely to remain weak in the coming months
  • Economy should strengthen over the coming years
  • There are signs that the labour market is weakening
  • Governments should roll back energy support measures
  • Structural reforms can help reduce inflation pressures
  • Inflation is expected to come down further in the near term
  • Energy prices are less predictable due to conflicts
  • Domestic price pressures remain strong
  • Most measures of longer-term inflation expectations currently stand at around 2%
  • Risks to growth skewed to the downside
  • Credit dynamics have weakened further
  • PEPP was not discussed
  • We did not discuss the remuneration of reserves
  • Now is not the time for forward guidance, its time for data-dependancy
  • Debate on rate cuts is premature
  • ECB has to be steady and has to hold
  • Rise in yields is a spillover we take into account and helps bring inflation down
  • More tightening is in pipeline for real economy
  • Hold doesn't mean we won't ever hike again
  • Growth has weakened and PMI data is not indicative of vigour
  • Today's decision was unanimous
  • I am not going to say we are at peak rates 

EURUSD gained at the start of Lagarde's presser but has began to swing later on. The pair is up around 0.1% over the course of the press conference. European indices are also trading slightly higher compared to pre-conference levels.

Source: xStation5

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